In the past two decades terrorists have blown up trains and buses, bombed crowded markets, hijacked planes and attacked places of worship. In every instance the outcome was similar - a flicker of anger followed by big claims of retribution for the guilty followed by NOTHING. The so-called 'Spirit of Mumbai' is sadly just a demonstration of callous indifference bordering on denial.
The pattern is similar - Pakistan "condemns" the terrorist attacks. The Government promises "swift" action against those who peddle death. Leaders from all corners of the planet spout platitudes about the world standing united against terror. As usual nothing happens.
India can and should lead the war against terrorism. In case of acts of terrorism there is no middle ground, no scope of being neutral, there cannot be any ambivalence; You are either with us against us. 'Enough is enough' happened many years ago.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Mumbai Targetted, Again
Mumbai was targeted by terrorists yet again. This is "26/11", India's "9/11" they say. Hold on though. What about the following:
"25/8" - Aug 25, 2003: 46 people killed in two blasts including one near the Gateway of India.
"11/7" - July 11, 2006: More than 200 people killed in seven blasts on suburban trains and stations.
This is just the latest in a series of terrorist attacks. And sadly, I have a fair idea of what is going to happen next.
The whole rigmarole of post terror attacks events will play out over the next few days. Public sentiment will go from shock to anger to callously indifferent. Politicians will "condemn" the "heinous act of terror". Gurus, Sadhus, Priests, Maulavis and other religious figures will say that these terrorists have no religion and that no religion condones terror. There will be calls for the Prime Minister and/or The Home Minister to resign. Stock Market analysts and Business Leaders will say the the terror attacks though unfortunate, will have no long-term impact on the Indian economy. Bollywood will simple say, "The show must go on". The Government will award compensation at he rate of Rs x/dead and Rs y/injured. Claims of a "breakthrough" in the investigation will be made, some suspects will be rounded up and paraded before the media to assuage public anger. In a few weeks and months the incident will drop out public memory and things will be back to "normal" till the next attack.
Do I seem too cynical? I don't think so. I am just being realistic. I am angry and disgusted at the state of affairs. The Central Government Cabinet will meet to take stock of the situation. What they will actually discuss is how badly this terror attack will impact them during the ongoing state elections. The opposition will gleefully campaign on this during the next Lok Sabha elections which are due in the next 6 months. The Police will arrest some people and many years later most of them will be acquitted due to lack of evidence.
I am sick and tired of this. I want to see terrorists being convicted, better yet I would like to see terrorist attacks foiled and the terrorists apprehended BEFORE the attack. I don't want brave security personnel to lose their lives simply because the Government was unable to equip them with bullet-proof jackets. I find it hard to understand why so many bomb blasts and terrorists attacks later the security of Mumbai is still not as stringent as it could be. The media glosses over the "spirit of Mumbai" that rises up the day after every senseless attack and then ... NOTHING. Life goes on like nothing happened for those of us who don't lose someone we love.
I would like some one to answer this simple question - How are such large-scale, multi-location, coordinated attacks carried out with military precision right under the nose of the Police and the Indian Intelligence Agencies? If terrorists can arrive in boats through Gateway Of India and launch such a large-scale attack in the commercial capital of the nation, it really says abysmal things about the nation's homeland security.
Mumbai and its citizens are resilient, but we are not and don't want to be sitting-ducks. Jai Hind !!
"25/8" - Aug 25, 2003: 46 people killed in two blasts including one near the Gateway of India.
"11/7" - July 11, 2006: More than 200 people killed in seven blasts on suburban trains and stations.
This is just the latest in a series of terrorist attacks. And sadly, I have a fair idea of what is going to happen next.
The whole rigmarole of post terror attacks events will play out over the next few days. Public sentiment will go from shock to anger to callously indifferent. Politicians will "condemn" the "heinous act of terror". Gurus, Sadhus, Priests, Maulavis and other religious figures will say that these terrorists have no religion and that no religion condones terror. There will be calls for the Prime Minister and/or The Home Minister to resign. Stock Market analysts and Business Leaders will say the the terror attacks though unfortunate, will have no long-term impact on the Indian economy. Bollywood will simple say, "The show must go on". The Government will award compensation at he rate of Rs x/dead and Rs y/injured. Claims of a "breakthrough" in the investigation will be made, some suspects will be rounded up and paraded before the media to assuage public anger. In a few weeks and months the incident will drop out public memory and things will be back to "normal" till the next attack.
Do I seem too cynical? I don't think so. I am just being realistic. I am angry and disgusted at the state of affairs. The Central Government Cabinet will meet to take stock of the situation. What they will actually discuss is how badly this terror attack will impact them during the ongoing state elections. The opposition will gleefully campaign on this during the next Lok Sabha elections which are due in the next 6 months. The Police will arrest some people and many years later most of them will be acquitted due to lack of evidence.
I am sick and tired of this. I want to see terrorists being convicted, better yet I would like to see terrorist attacks foiled and the terrorists apprehended BEFORE the attack. I don't want brave security personnel to lose their lives simply because the Government was unable to equip them with bullet-proof jackets. I find it hard to understand why so many bomb blasts and terrorists attacks later the security of Mumbai is still not as stringent as it could be. The media glosses over the "spirit of Mumbai" that rises up the day after every senseless attack and then ... NOTHING. Life goes on like nothing happened for those of us who don't lose someone we love.
I would like some one to answer this simple question - How are such large-scale, multi-location, coordinated attacks carried out with military precision right under the nose of the Police and the Indian Intelligence Agencies? If terrorists can arrive in boats through Gateway Of India and launch such a large-scale attack in the commercial capital of the nation, it really says abysmal things about the nation's homeland security.
Mumbai and its citizens are resilient, but we are not and don't want to be sitting-ducks. Jai Hind !!
Monday, November 17, 2008
Funny Take On The Stock Market
I received this cartoon via a forwarded mail some time back. Check it out, it's quite witty.
PS: I am not sure who owns the copyrights of this picture. In case of any issues, please let me know.
PS: I am not sure who owns the copyrights of this picture. In case of any issues, please let me know.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Keep An Eye On The Baltic Dry Index
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) or the "Baldry" is a measure of what it costs to ship raw materials — like iron ore, steel, cement, coal and so on — around the world. The BDI is compiled daily by London's Baltic Exchange, whose members are buyers and sellers of shipping contracts. To compile the index, members of the Baltic Exchange call dry bulk shippers around the world to see what their prices are for 22 different shipping routes around the globe. The information from a variety of categories like shipping routes, types of cargo and ship sizes is collected and amalgamated into the BDI.
In a nut-shell: The BDI shows how much people are willing to pay to ship certain raw materials around the world.
Why Watch The Baltic Dry Index?
The Baltic Dry Index is a leading indicator that provides a clear view into the global demand for commodities and raw materials. The fact that the BDI focuses on raw materials is important because demand for raw materials provides a glimpse into the future. Producers buy raw materials when they want to start building more finished goods and infrastructure—like automobiles, heavy machinery, roads, buildings and so on. People don't hire a ship unless they have cargo to ship.
Typically, demand for commodities and raw goods increases when global economies are growing. Conversely, demand for commodities and raw goods decreases when global economies are stalling or contracting.
Interpreting the Baltic Dry Index
When the BDI is moving UP - Global economies are starting to, or continuing to, grow.
When the BDI is moving DOWN - Global economies are starting to, or continuing to, contract.
Current Status
The BDI was at 11000 plus levels in January; from those levels it fell to 850 in October. The BDI is now trading at levels not seen since 2001.
The Baltic Dry Index's recent plunge:
Source: Bloomberg
The recent plunge has been exaggerated because banks have been reluctant to issue Letters of Credit. “Letter of Credit” (LC) is a guarantee issued by a bank that the buyers funds will be transferred to the seller at the completion of the transaction. Still the BDI started falling in January 2008, much before the crisis erupted, clearly proving its worth a leading economic indicator.
So, keep an eye on the BDI, it will start rising when the downturn ends and economies recover.
In a nut-shell: The BDI shows how much people are willing to pay to ship certain raw materials around the world.
Why Watch The Baltic Dry Index?
The Baltic Dry Index is a leading indicator that provides a clear view into the global demand for commodities and raw materials. The fact that the BDI focuses on raw materials is important because demand for raw materials provides a glimpse into the future. Producers buy raw materials when they want to start building more finished goods and infrastructure—like automobiles, heavy machinery, roads, buildings and so on. People don't hire a ship unless they have cargo to ship.
Typically, demand for commodities and raw goods increases when global economies are growing. Conversely, demand for commodities and raw goods decreases when global economies are stalling or contracting.
Interpreting the Baltic Dry Index
When the BDI is moving UP - Global economies are starting to, or continuing to, grow.
When the BDI is moving DOWN - Global economies are starting to, or continuing to, contract.
Current Status
The BDI was at 11000 plus levels in January; from those levels it fell to 850 in October. The BDI is now trading at levels not seen since 2001.
The Baltic Dry Index's recent plunge:
Source: BloombergThe recent plunge has been exaggerated because banks have been reluctant to issue Letters of Credit. “Letter of Credit” (LC) is a guarantee issued by a bank that the buyers funds will be transferred to the seller at the completion of the transaction. Still the BDI started falling in January 2008, much before the crisis erupted, clearly proving its worth a leading economic indicator.
So, keep an eye on the BDI, it will start rising when the downturn ends and economies recover.
For more information visit:
For the latest value of the BDI visit:
Sunday, November 9, 2008
The Collapse Of Iceland
Iceland is on the brink of collapse. Overnight, people lost their savings. Prices are soaring. Once-crowded restaurants are almost empty. Banks are rationing foreign currency, and companies are finding it dauntingly difficult to do business abroad. Inflation is at 16 percent and rising. People have stopped traveling overseas. The local currency, the krona, was 65 to the dollar a year ago; now it is 130. Companies are slashing salaries, reducing workers’ hours and, in some instances, embarking on mass layoffs. The country's banks are practically insolvent and the government has been forced to assume their liabilities. The are reports of people were buying up supplies of olive oil and pasta because supermarkets don't have the foreign currency needed to import more foodstuffs.
Just a year back Iceland’s economy seemed white-hot. It had the fourth-highest gross domestic product per-capita in the world. A 2007 United Nations report measuring life expectancy, real per-capita income and educational levels identified Iceland as the world’s best country in which to live. So, how did this happen? Can an economy crumble overnight? What went wrong in Iceland?
Iceland is an unlikely player on the global financial stage. Iceland had, in a very short period of time, created an internationally active banking sector that was vast relative to the size of its very small economy. Most of the banking system’s assets and liabilities were denominated in foreign currencies like the Euro, the Dollar etc. Money was cheap, so banks, companies borrowed freely. So far so good, but what triggered the collapse? The answer - Lehman Brothers.
Lehman Brothers collapse and the subsequent bankruptcy meant that many money-market funds (funds that invest in short term commercial bonds) who had invested in Lehman's bonds lost money. This led to a loss of trust in the money markets and the interbank market froze. Iceland's Glitnir Bank was among the first casualties. Like fellow Icelandic banks Landsbanki and Kaupthing, Glitnir was solvent, but when foreign short-run credit lines closed, Glitnir had to request a short-term loan from the Central Bank of Iceland, which refused. The government forcibly nationalized the bank. This triggered a sovereign debt downgrade and a sharp further fall in the already depreciated krona. Short-run funding for Glitnir and Landsbanki evaporated. Iceland's currency markets shut down and the krona's value collapsed. The Central Bank tried to peg the value of the krona, but the attempt failed and the peg was abandoned in just a day.
The whole system was basically a house of cards, since long-term loans were being funded by short-term borrowings. When Iceland's lenders refused to roll-over the money they had lent, the banking system collapsed. Iceland built its extraordinary wealth on the crest of the worldwide credit boom and now the crunch is sweeping it away.
Just a year back Iceland’s economy seemed white-hot. It had the fourth-highest gross domestic product per-capita in the world. A 2007 United Nations report measuring life expectancy, real per-capita income and educational levels identified Iceland as the world’s best country in which to live. So, how did this happen? Can an economy crumble overnight? What went wrong in Iceland?
Iceland is an unlikely player on the global financial stage. Iceland had, in a very short period of time, created an internationally active banking sector that was vast relative to the size of its very small economy. Most of the banking system’s assets and liabilities were denominated in foreign currencies like the Euro, the Dollar etc. Money was cheap, so banks, companies borrowed freely. So far so good, but what triggered the collapse? The answer - Lehman Brothers.
Lehman Brothers collapse and the subsequent bankruptcy meant that many money-market funds (funds that invest in short term commercial bonds) who had invested in Lehman's bonds lost money. This led to a loss of trust in the money markets and the interbank market froze. Iceland's Glitnir Bank was among the first casualties. Like fellow Icelandic banks Landsbanki and Kaupthing, Glitnir was solvent, but when foreign short-run credit lines closed, Glitnir had to request a short-term loan from the Central Bank of Iceland, which refused. The government forcibly nationalized the bank. This triggered a sovereign debt downgrade and a sharp further fall in the already depreciated krona. Short-run funding for Glitnir and Landsbanki evaporated. Iceland's currency markets shut down and the krona's value collapsed. The Central Bank tried to peg the value of the krona, but the attempt failed and the peg was abandoned in just a day.
The whole system was basically a house of cards, since long-term loans were being funded by short-term borrowings. When Iceland's lenders refused to roll-over the money they had lent, the banking system collapsed. Iceland built its extraordinary wealth on the crest of the worldwide credit boom and now the crunch is sweeping it away.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
President Barack Obama
This is one of those moments in history when it is worth pausing and reflecting on the basic facts - An American of African-American origins with the name Barack Hussein Obama has been elected the 44th president of the United States. Obama swept away the last racial barrier in American politics with ease as the country chose him as its first black chief executive. A once-reluctant nation has finally lived up to its democratic promise.
From far away, this is how it looks: There is a country out there where tens of millions of white Christians, voting freely, select as their leader a black man of modest origin, the son of a Muslim. There is a place on Earth — call it America — where such a thing happens.
From this day forward let every person in the world know: Everything really is possible in America. As Mr. Obama said “If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.”
America has just said "We don’t care what your race/religion/caste/creed is. If you can make things better, we’re for you." Countries like China, Russia, the countries in the Middle East have to introspect and ask themselves , "Can something like this happen in our society?"
From far away, this is how it looks: There is a country out there where tens of millions of white Christians, voting freely, select as their leader a black man of modest origin, the son of a Muslim. There is a place on Earth — call it America — where such a thing happens.
From this day forward let every person in the world know: Everything really is possible in America. As Mr. Obama said “If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.”
America has just said "We don’t care what your race/religion/caste/creed is. If you can make things better, we’re for you." Countries like China, Russia, the countries in the Middle East have to introspect and ask themselves , "Can something like this happen in our society?"
Saturday, November 1, 2008
A Short History Of Modern Finance
The October 16th, 2008 edition of the economist has a great article on how the global financial system evolved.
The link to the article is:
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12415730
The link to the article is:
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12415730
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)